Why A Computer Believes Tiger Woods Will Do Better At The Honda Classic

Tiger Woods is entering his first back-to-back event this week in since early last year when he WD’d in Dubai. The Honda Classic is nearby his home and he wants ‘more reps.’

Yes, he missed the cut at the Genesis Open and PGA National is no cupcake, but one stats professor believes Woods will fare well this week. GolfDigest.com’s Joel Beall gives the teach’s reasons.

Dr. Lucius Riccio, a statistical contributor to Golf Digest for 30 years and one of the inventors of the USGA Slope System, has developed a model for predicting tournament outcomes.

According to Professor Lou’s Model, the 42-year-old is likely to post some promising scores in Palm Beach Gardens.

“For the first time the Model is showing some signs of hope for Tiger,” says Riccio. “Maybe it’s the course or maybe it’s being close to home, but his showing in the simulations are much better this week. He still is a long long shot to win but his probability of making the cut is much higher than it has been  and even his chances of a top ten are non-zero. The Model expects him to be in the 20 to 40 range by the end of the weekend. Progress if not victory.”

For comparison, DraftKings has Woods ranked as the 18th ranked player in the field sandwiched between Webb Simpson and Rafael Cabrera-Bello. Again, it’s not because DK prognosticators believe Tiger will shine, but that his overly optimistic fans will always take him–thus his value is listed accordingly.

I’d like to believe the computer model knows what its doing. However, until Tiger fixes that wonky driver, any weekend play is more hope than certainty. However, as usual, GolfChannel will televise his every shot Thursday and Friday. Why? Because the media is told to play the hits and even a struggling Tiger Woods is more intriguing than anyone else in the field–including Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia.

And, be prepared for it to continue that way until further notice.

BTW, ESPN’s Bob Harig posts this nugget as Woods and his fans look ahead to The Masters…

Woods has said more than once that trying to peak for the major championships remains among his goals. “I’m looking forward to just kind of progressing, just keep playing, keep playing tournaments and get everything kind of situated headed to April.”

You never say never with Tiger. He has shown amazing resilience at Augusta National, even in the face of great adversity. His comeback from a personal scandal in 2010 (T-4) and the return after nine weeks because of, among other things, chipping problems in 2015 (T-17) are prime examples.

Since his first Masters start as a pro in 1997, Woods has been outside of the top 20 just three times. And since his last victory in 2005 at Augusta, he has seven top-6 finishes.