How Tough Is It To Sit On A Large Lead?

Mark Leishman successfully held on to his 5-shot, 54-hole lead to win by the same margin last Sunday. 

One of the toughest things to do in golf is sit on a big lead. I should know as I, not once, but twice blew 4-up leads in AG’s Media Madness (I still “blame” Craig Rosengarden who coincidentally just happened to roll up both times to check on me as I began the quick slide to defeat).

Anyway, Golf.com’s Dylan Dethier charts how successfully a Tour pro handles a 54-hole lead and the percentage of winning finishes.

51—number of different players who held at least a share of the 54-hole lead

27%—percentage of those players (14) who went on to win

9—number of 54-hole leaders who had a world ranking of 10 or better at the time of their leads (There were five players in this group: Hideki, DJ, Spieth, Stenson, and Thomas).

77.8%—percentage of those players (7) who went on to win. The only two who failed to close—Jordan Spieth at the Northern Trust Open and Justin Thomas at the WGC-Mexico—were both chased down by world No. 1 Dustin Johnson.

68.55—fourth-round scoring average of top-10 leaders/co-leaders, which is better than Spieth’s Tour-leading 68.85 season-long scoring average.

1. RICKIE FOWLER WAS THE ONLY 54-HOLE LEADER TO SHOOT OVER PAR ON SUNDAY AND WIN

His one-over 71 on a tough Honda Classic Sunday was good enough to preserve a four-shot lead. Just four other winners shot final rounds in the 70s, and each of them began the day with the lead.

2. 54-HOLE LEADERS PLAYED REALLY WELL TO WIN, BUT COME-FROM-BEHIND WINNERS PLAYED EVEN BETTER.

68.53—fourth-round scoring average of the 54-hole leaders who went on to win

66.36—fourth-round scoring average of the 28 come-from-behind winners, 4.86 shots better than the field average for those days.

6. IT’S REALLY HARD TO PROTECT A LEAD ON THE PGA TOUR…

This season wasn’t an anomaly, at least when compared to 2015-16. Last year, 52 players took the lead (or a share of the lead into Sunday). Just 19 of them, or 36.6%, closed the deal. Top-10 leaders scored 1.7 strokes better than the field on Sundays, while top-25 leaders scored 1.3 better—each nearly identical to this year—while players outside the top 25 essentially played to the field average.

7. …UNLESS YOU’RE TIGER WOODS

You remember him, right? Of all the insane stats Woods produced, this seems an apt time to mention his winning percentage when he entered Sunday with at least a share of the lead: 93%. Of all the numbers that put his greatness in perspective, that one has to rank right up there.