Tour Caddies Weigh In On Who Wins Tiger Vs. Phil Match

A Tour caddie knows much. They might be the best source for insider info on what’s happening on the pro Tours. So, as the over-hyped Tiger vs. Phil Friday match approaches, T.J. Auclair on TheCaddieNetwork.com posted a fun read on what 40 polled tour caddies believe will be the match’s outcome.

“Obviously neither one of them cares about the money. And while I think Phil cares about winning this more than Tiger does, I think Tiger will win solely because he doesn’t want Phil to be able to talk trash to him going forward. It’s like playing basketball in the driveway with your little brother. You don’t get much satisfaction out of beating him, but you can’t let him win because he’ll never stop talking about it.”

“Two words: Momentum and confidence. Tiger is starting to feel like his dominating self with the shots he’s able to execute now that he is healthy.”

“Phil is not playing near good enough to compete with a healthy Tiger… it will not even be close. I would not pay to watch this match!”

“Tiger wins the match but… Phil is a better gambler. He will win all the side bets.”

“Phil has been in Tiger’s shadow his whole career. He’s going to do everything he can to declaw him. Plus, I’m not sure there is a better gambler on Tour than Phil. His $hit-talking game is going to be on point, and Tiger will be rattled… Phil, 2 up.”

“Phil always plays for money. His side action game is better than his tournament game.”

The final tally is 26-14 for Tiger.

I tend to agree with those caddie Tiger-winning predictions. Phil will come up with the most imaginative bets but his game has been mighty suspect of late. Woods merely won his last tournament. And yes, I’m shelling out the $19.99 ’cause I’ll need to talk about it on the Teebox Golf Show Saturday morning from Crest Cars in Frisco from 8-10 (Tour pro Edward Loar is the special co-host).

Anyway, I’m more intrigued by the side bets as they can get out of hand in a hurry. And the broadcast will need something to keep the viewers entertained between the match play shots without an undercard to fill the void. My best idea would be for the two to use each other’s clubs on a hole (righty-lefty sticks)–or at least a shot. It’s a circus anyway, so any and all bets–no matter how ludicrous–should be considered.

Golf.com’s Dylan Dethier believes the first side bet offered by Mickelson is a losing proposition on Shadow Creek’s par-4 first hole. Phil threw out the wager that he’d birdie the first hole. Tiger’s response:

“Double it.” 

A final way to look at it is to check out the expected value of Mickelson’s cash. Given the setup of the first hole at Shadow Creek, he is betting $200,000 on something that has a roughly one in five chance of paying out. That means he has a 20 percent chance at leaving with $400,000, which leaves him with an expected end total of $80,000. Down $120k? Not a great investment.

Woods, on the other hand, has an 80 percent chance of cashing in on a non-birdie. That means he has, for now, turned his $200,000 into an expected $320,000.